start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0308

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0015

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0087

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0329

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

   -0.0288

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0176

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0073

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0035

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2294

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2280

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2288

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2284

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0065

change in G

ans =

   -0.0457

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0014

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -6.1056e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -9.7726e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 2.1112 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0051

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0086

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0044

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

    0.0025

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0252

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0022

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0085

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0230

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0087

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0317

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

   -0.0239

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0156

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0266

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0084

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0033

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0095

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2296

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2288

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2288

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2292

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0056

change in G

ans =

   -0.0382

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

  -7.8269e-04

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -8.0388e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -3.4908e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0

+++++++++++++++++++multiplier++++++++++++++++

multiplier =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    1.7155    2.0889    2.4111    2.7268    2.9093

  Columns 14 through 26

    3.0227    3.0945    3.1385    3.1618    3.1683    2.9179    2.5268    2.3234    2.2844    2.3271    2.4174    2.5426    2.6916

  Columns 27 through 39

    2.8022    2.8718    2.9125    2.9307    2.9301    2.9111    2.8475    2.8049    2.7440    2.6627    2.5578    2.4250    2.2581

  Column 40

    2.0492


multiplier1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    3.5675    3.6477    3.7258    3.8027    3.8485

  Columns 14 through 26

    3.8791    3.9010    3.9177    3.9308    3.9416    3.9280    3.8841    3.8278    3.7686    3.7127    3.6709    3.6543    3.6666

  Columns 27 through 39

    3.6818    3.6928    3.7005    3.7053    3.7077    3.7073    3.6925    3.6893    3.6844    3.6778    3.6699    3.6607    3.6505

  Column 40

    3.6396


multiplier_RE =

  Columns 1 through 21

     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 22 through 40

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN


multiplier_RE1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    3.1174    3.1264    3.1354    3.1445    3.1537

  Columns 14 through 26

    3.1629    3.1721    3.1814    3.1907    3.2000    3.2095    3.2189    3.2284    3.2379    3.2475    3.2571    3.2668    3.2765

  Columns 27 through 39

    3.2862    3.2960    3.3058    3.3157    3.3256    3.3356    3.3455    3.3556    3.3656    3.3758    3.3859    3.3961    3.4063

  Column 40

    3.4166


years =

        2008        2009        2010        2011        2012        2013        2014        2015        2016        2017


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [-0.9007 -4.9788 -4.1801 -7.1070 -12.2352 -14.4654]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


y_with =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.0252   -0.0741   -0.1423   -0.2254   -0.6728   -1.5851   -2.8925   -4.6113   -6.1936   -7.4352   -8.2362   -8.5919   -8.6417

  Columns 14 through 26

   -8.4864   -8.1599   -7.6956   -7.1254   -6.4793   -5.9470   -5.7117   -5.7022   -5.7819   -5.8583   -5.7756   -5.3078   -4.3030

  Columns 27 through 39

   -3.0627   -1.8958   -0.8726    0.0019    0.7270    1.3000    1.5983    1.8502    2.0764    2.1941    2.2160    2.1552    2.0251

  Column 40

    1.8387


ylhand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3318e+05 -7.5000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ylhand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand', ylhand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand'), end">all properties</a>

average output loss over three years

ans =

   -0.3070

cumulative output loss over six years

ans =

   -5.0687


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h5 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h5', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5', h5, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>

g_with1

g_with1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.0005   -0.0014   -0.0026   -0.0041   -0.0125   -0.0293   -0.0552   -0.1471   -0.2321   -0.2301   -0.1954   -0.1383   -0.1351

  Columns 14 through 26

   -0.1281   -0.1181   -0.1058   -0.0919   -0.0771   -0.1610   -0.3025   -0.3929   -0.4513   -0.4804   -0.4305   -0.2696   -0.0338

  Columns 27 through 39

    0.0429    0.0640    0.0818    0.0962    0.1073    0.1118    0.0357    0.1210    0.1220    0.1210    0.1181    0.1138    0.1083

  Column 40

    0.1019


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734047 734412 734777 735143 735508 735873 736238 736604]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp', hp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp'), end">all properties</a>


hpp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp', hpp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp'), end">all properties</a>


y2hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3294e+05 9.5367e-06 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y2hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand', y2hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand'), end">all properties</a>


hpp1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1', hpp1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1'), end">all properties</a>


y3hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3306e+05 3.8147e-06 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y3hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand', y3hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 2.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0051

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0086

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0044

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

    0.0025

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0102

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RE solution
ordering: rk wage output mp hours cons invst caput cap gama
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
